You can sort of forecast interest rates

To get some idea how high your ARM interest rate might go up (or down), you need to forecast movements in the interest rates; however, most mortgage pros say that no one can predict interest rates, so why even try.

5 In 1981 and 2006, newly originated ARM interest rates exceeded 30-year fixed-rate loans.

In one sense, the mortgage pros are right. Neither you, I, nor anyone else can know for certain where mortgage rates will sit six months or six years from now. But that fact doesn't mean that reasoned estimates won't prove better than sticking your head in the sand. Mortgage rates don't land where they do for arbitrary reasons. Long-term mortgage interest rates tie into the expected rate of inflation.

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